How to Win at Craps:
Winning Systems and Craps Strategies
If anyone ever says or writes that he knows a consistently "winning" craps strategy, he's either lying to con you out of your
money or too stupid to know better. No consistently winning craps strategy or system exists, has ever existed, or will ever
exist. Understand? None. Don't ever let anyone persuade you otherwise. Got it?
Most systems spread false hope to people who are desperate to win. Those systems hardly ever change as they go from
book to book and website to website. Some authors prey on your greed, your hope for a quick-and-easy score. As with
everything else that offers people a quick buck, these con artists take from the desperate and give to themselves. Their
so-called "winning" systems focus on consistently beating the casino, which can't be done over time.
You shouldn't play craps expecting to win, especially over time. If you do have a winning craps session or short-term
winning streak, consider yourself lucky for experiencing a distribution variance that favored you at that particular time. If a
consistently "winning" craps strategy ever did exist, the casinos would have gone bankrupt years ago. Well, not really.
Instead of going bankrupt, the instant a genius figured out a winning combination of bets that gained a player advantage,
the casinos would have changed the rules to bring the advantage back to them.
All craps strategies and systems are simply combinations of bets supplemented with wacky betting schemes. Most sound
scientific and very convincing. Some are simple, some are complex. The fact is, no matter what craps bets you combine and
betting patterns you use, you can't and won't overcome the house advantage. No hedge-bet method (i.e., combination of
bet types and bet amounts) will ever change the negative expectation to result in an advantage for you. The best you can
hope for is to minimize the casino advantage, maximize your fun, and hope like hell you hit a "Nirvana hiccup" (explained in
the lesson on Variance).
You may ask, "This is depressing! Why do people play this game at all?" The ignorant and arrogant players truly believe
they can either beat the casino, or they possess some kind of supernatural mojo that affects the dice, or they believe in the
ridiculous idea of dice control. However, the knowledgeable player plays for one basic reason--because it's so much fun.
The knowledgeable player knows she's supposed to lose over time. This acknowledgement allows her to enjoy the game
without worrying about winning. If she loses a session, it's paid entertainment. If she wins a session, she knows she'll
probably lose it during a future session. The interaction with people, the range of emotion, and the thrill of the hot roll are
what bring the knowledgeable player back time after time.
It's a mathematical fact that you cannot gain an advantage over the casino using any combination of bets or bet amounts.
None. Got it? Yet I see book after book and website after website explaining a wide variety of craps strategies that
so-called "craps pros" use to consistently beat the casino. It irritates me knowing that the gambling world recognizes some
of these authors as craps "experts." It irritates me when I read something from a so-called casino craps expert who has no
clue about the mathematical facts of the game and spreads false hope instead of fact. It irritates me knowing the gaming
Industry acknowledges and flaunts these people as skilled and knowledgeable players. It all boils down to money. False
hope and dreams of winning big are what sell books and website advertising. The reality is that the game of craps is
designed for you to lose--and that fact doesn't sell squat. In other words, in the gaming world, bullshit sells whereas reality
doesn't. One can only conclude that some of these authors either aren't the experts that Industry acknowledges them to
be, or they're selling bullshit for an easy buck.
Search the Internet for craps articles and you'll find lots of them. Some factual, some full of bullshit. Some by unknown
authors, some by well-known Industry leaders who have multi-book titles to their credit and routinely write for magazines
and newsletters. Some authors do, indeed, explain game facts honestly and correctly. However, too often, many so-called
experts apparently feel no shame in spreading false hope and pure bullshit.
For example, I just finished reading a series of articles by a well-known author with several book titles in print and a long list
of other writing credits. He talks about using crazy craps strategies to make a profit for almost every bet on the table, even
those with high casino advantages. The fact is that none of those strategies can guarantee you long-term wins. As
explained in the lesson on Variance, distribution variance is the only thing that allows you to win in the short-term. Let's
examine one of these so-called winning strategies that so-called pros use to make a profit: Place betting the 6 and 8.
The author's scheme is to Place bet both the 6 and 8, then wait until one of them hits and then turn them both off (i.e.,
make them not working) because a 7 is more likely to appear before another 6 or 8. If five rolls go by without hitting a 6 or
8 and without hitting a 7, then turn both bets off because the 7 is due to hit. After a 7 appears, then Place bet the 6 and 8
again. The author ends his article by offering false hope (i.e., bullshit) that this system will be profitable for you only if you
have discipline to stick to the method without making any other bets.
Your first clue that the author clearly isn't the expert that his credentials imply is the reliance on the "Gambler's Fallacy"
(refer to the lesson on the The Gambler's Fallacy). His craps strategy considers a 7 is "due" to hit if it doesn't show in five
rolls or if a 6 or 8 shows first. We know this is absurd (refer to the lesson on the Gambler's Fallacy) because the odds of any
number appearing on the next roll are the same whether the number hasn't appeared after five rolls or after a ga-zillion
rolls. Since the odds never change, it doesn't matter how many times you turn off your Place bets. You can leave them on
constantly, or turn them off and back on every other roll. It doesn't matter, the odds never change. Let's look at the math
associated with Place betting the 6 and 8.
Over many rolls, results tend to resemble a perfect distribution. Assuming a perfect distribution over 36 rolls, we expect a 7
to appear six times, a 6 to appear five times, and an 8 to appear five times. Because the odds for any number appearing on
the next roll never change, the odds of your Place bets winning and losing are the same whether you leave them on
constantly or whether you randomly turn them off and on.
Assume you bet $6 on the 6 and $6 on the 8 for a total of $12. Assuming a perfect distribution, the 6 will appear five times
in 36 rolls and you win $35 (5 x $7 = $35). The 8 will appear five times in those 36 rolls and you win $35 (5 x $7 = $35.
Therefore, in a 36-roll perfect distribution, you win $70 by Place betting the 6 and 8 for $6 each. (Note: for a $6 Place bet on
the 6 or 8, the Place odds are 7:6, which means you win $7 for your $6 bet.)
However, on six of those 36 rolls, a 7 will appear and you lose $72 ($6 on the 6 and $6 on the 8 = $12; then $12 x 6 = $72).
The negative expectation with this system (i.e., Place betting the 6 and 8 for $6 each) is that you lose an average of $2 for
every 36 rolls (i.e., you win $70, but you lose $72).
This is actually a good craps strategy because of the low casino advantages of the Place 6 and 8 bets. However, it's clear
that this strategy cannot guarantee long-term success. It's statistically impossible. In other words, despite the author's
claim that this system will prove to be very profitable for you, the statistical fact is that it won't over the long-term.
So, the question you should ask yourself now is: If this craps strategy relies on the false notion of the Gambler's Fallacy, and
if this strategy is statistically proven to result in you losing over the long-term, why is this so-called craps expert feeding you
such bullshit by saying it will prove to be very profitable for you? I think I know the answer to that question, and I think you
do, too. Could the answer have anything to do with selling books and articles?
Don't fall for bogus claims of winning craps strategies or wacky dice-control schemes.